An exploratory assessment of the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock of bowhead whales using a stochastic population dynamics model

The stochastic population dynamics model used by Aboriginal Whaling Management Procedure developers is revised to correct weaknesses related uncertainty parameterisation and replacement yield estimation. Two variants of this model, along with the standard deterministic version, are assess Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas stock bowhead whales. differ respect magnitude complexity variation they introduce into natural mortality birth/calf survival processes. An allowable catch statistic, E (Q0), defined for appropriate use assessments. Using same assessment methods, likelihood priors as IWC (1999a), 5th percentiles (Q0) were found be 117, 106 91 deterministic, simpler extreme models, respectively. Bayes factor results show that there no evidence suggesting either should favoured over any alternative, yielded best fit overall. estimates confirm strengthen past Scientific Committee inference under current subsistence hunting levels continue increase towards stabilisation above its maximum sustainable level.